Red Sox point-counterpoint: What’s next after the big Sonny Gray trade with the Cardinals?

On Monday the calendar flips to December when Major League Baseball s hot stove often goes from simmering to boiling over The Red Sox wrapped up November with a agreement for right-hander Sonny Gray but will they make a big splash at next month s Winter Meetings like they did last year The Herald s Red Sox reporters Gabrielle Starr and Mac Cerullo discuss Related Articles Analysis More moves realizable but Sonny Gray likely Red Sox No starter Red Sox boss declines to say if Sonny Gray will be club s No starter Red Sox acquire right-hander Sonny Gray from Cardinals Red Sox honor Yankees lefty as Tony Conigliaro Award winner MLB notes Moment of truth may be near for Barry Bonds Roger Clemens Sonny Gray yay or nay Gabrielle Starr The Red Sox made what will hopefully be a rotation upgrade with this week s commerce for Sonny Gray There s a lot to like such as the promising innings-pitched and strikeouts track record but he didn t come cheap and a considerable portion of the fan base appears underwhelmed What do you think of the move Mac Cerullo I like it more than a lot of Red Sox fans apparently Gray has been one of the the majority consistent and reliable starting pitchers in baseball for preponderance of the past decade and his under the hood metrics were much better last year than his ERA would suggest He might not be as flashy a name as say Minnesota s Joe Ryan but he ll give the Red Sox rotation a boost I m also not sure I agree with your assessment that he didn t come cheap Sure million is a solid chunk of change but that s basically what the Red Sox paid Walker Buehler last year and only a bit more than what Lucas Giolito earned In terms of asset allocation taking that money from either one of them and putting it towards someone who should be better strikes me as a great piece of business especially when they only other thing Gray cost was two promising arms who weren t top- talents and likely wouldn t have made a huge impact on the club Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan delivers against the Cleveland Guardians during the first inning of a tournament Friday Aug in Cleveland AP Photo Phil Long GS I like this business too I think Gray s rough tenure with the - Yankees may be coloring this transaction for certain Red Sox fans because that was his closest proximity to Boston I also would bet there are fans who feel this move is too similar to the short-term moves the front office has made in modern years for similarly-aged pitchers several of which were busts Twins righty Joe Ryan was more what I had in mind for a Red Sox rotation upgrade this offseason but the return package would have been significantly bigger Gray is more in their starter-acquisition comfort zone There s more nuance and upside to this arrangement than fans in this mindset think such as the fact that the Red Sox are now advancing legitimate big-league starters rather than rebuilding a farm system that perennially struggled in this area and therefore no longer feel the need to make long-term additions That reported with the exception of the Garrett Crochet agreement last winter the current track record isn t exactly a thrill ride And we seemingly wrote similarly optimistic takes about the Walker Buehler signing last year and look how that turned out I m sure watching the reigning American League pennant-winning Blue Jays ink free-agent starter Dylan Cease to a big contract the next day didn t exactly pretty-up the Gray business for Sox fans either And just looking at their projected luxury tax payroll it will be intriguing to see how far ownership is willing to go with spending The estimated payroll is million just million away from hitting the million competitive balance threshold Specific of that money could come off in trades and arbitration outcomes but if the Red Sox are truly committed to improving the roster it s safe to assume they ll be going over that line for a second straight season MC Absolutely but the good news is the penalties for going over the CBT don t really start getting onerous until you ve passed the second threshold which this year is at million If the Red Sox exceeded that they d have their first draft pick moved back spots but anything less and all it would cost is money likely no more than million in taxes So if that s a reasonable ceiling that still leaves the Red Sox nearly million to work with GS Personally I d love to see them veer into onerous territory It s been a while Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello should be a fixture of the club's starting rotation going forward AP Photo Pamela Smith Who s staying who could go GS Aside from Roman Anthony who is about as untradeable as a participant without a no-trade clause can be who do you think the Red Sox view as keepers MC Well besides the obvious like Crochet and Gray I think the least likely arrangement candidate is Brayan Bello The Red Sox are making a real effort to build a true championship-caliber rotation and moving an up-and-comer on a great contract like Bello just before he reaches his prime seems counterproductive Carlos Narv ez is likely untradable too given his fantastic rookie year and the club s nonexistent depth at catcher but after that you could imagine a occurrence for trading just about everyone else on the -man under the right circumstances GS Agree on all counts and I would add Ceddanne Rafaela to the list The Red Sox love his defense and manager Alex Cora definitely values him highly Beyond them I feel like almost everyone is on the table Who do you think is largest part likely to be traded and who do you think the Red Sox would most of like to business MC I think one of Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu are as good as gone They re valuable pieces who could command a solid return or headline a bigger blockbuster and while having a lot of outfield depth isn t a bad thing having that kind of logjam isn t sustainable As far as who the club would largest part like to arrangement it has to be Masataka Yoshida He s shown he can be a productive big leaguer but even when healthy he still has a limited skillset and virtually no versatility Unloading Yoshida and freeing up the DH spot might also make it practical to keep both Duran and Abreu and it would certainly make signing Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber an easier proposition from a roster perspective GS Agreed on all counts If we ve learned anything from the Mookie Betts transaction the fact that the Red Sox reworked Duran s club option and agreed to a contract for next season does not mean he s safe I would also venture that the Red Sox would like to have a more concrete plan for first base and Triston Casas injuries and struggles the last two seasons have made that laborious They tried to transaction him last offseason MC I have no doubt the Red Sox will have particular kind of contingency plan for first base but my guess is they ll take their shot at the big free agents before getting more creative I also have a hard time seeing the club contract Casas now not when his value is at its lowest and there s still a chance he could bounce back in a big way Boston Red Sox outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela celebrates after defeating the Detroit Tigers in a event to advance to the postseason Friday Sept in Boston AP Photo Greg M Cooper Winter Meetings predictions GS Last year the Red Sox made a tremendous splash on the final day of Winter Meetings when they traded for Crochet They also made a smaller splash with a crucial ripple effect later the same day when they acquired Narv ez from the Yankees And if you go back to Breslow s first Winter Meetings at the helm the year before he also shipped Alex Verdugo for Fitts Greg Weissert who was a huge bullpen asset for Boston this year and Nicholas Judice I have a feeling Breslow is about to go for a three-peat Perhaps for the big bat this lineup so badly requirements MC The Red Sox need position players and it already feels like the free agent realm is moving more hastily this winter than it has in the past There isn t a generational figure like Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto holding things up so I feel like this winter will be more like the Winter Meetings when it was just one big signing after another I imagine Alex Bregman won t play things out until February like last year and I wouldn t be shocked if Alonso Schwarber and several of the big Japanese free agents all have homes by the time things wrap up in Orlando I d bet at least one of them will be Boston-bound as well GS Teams and players definitely seem motivated to shore up their futures before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires next fall and all heck breaks loose again If the Red Sox can t manage at least one major signing it s safe to say something has gone terribly wrong